Friday, October 19, 2018

Day 1 Update: 40 & Over 4.5+ Men USTA League Nationals

Day 1 is in the books and here is what the simulation looks like now.

Five teams are undefeated, but it appears there is no scenario where they can all remain undefeated, nor even four of them undefeated.  It appears we'll have a tie for at least 4th at 3-1 again.

Here are the teams most likely to be in at least a tie for 4th in order of likelihood:
  • Southern Cal
  • Eastern
  • Northern Cal
  • Northern
  • Texas
  • Florida

Three of the above were highlighted in the original prediction, just Mid-Atlantic is missing, but they were the 4th pick originally to make the semis.

Just Southern Cal and Eastern have a 4-0 record as the most likely, so a four way tie at 3-1 for two spots is expected, and a few other teams are more likely to finish 2-2 but could join the fray at 3-1.

Some key matches tomorrow include Northern vs SoCal, NorCal vs Texas, and Florida vs NorCal.  Those will go a long way to determining who advances.

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