As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
With the second weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 18 & Over 3.5 men that is coming up this weekend in Orland, FL. Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.
The most likely teams to make at least a tie for 4th place are:
- Texas - 98%
- Middle States - 90%
- Intermountain - 77%
- Mid-Atlantic - 76%
I did increase the variability a bit for these predictions for week 2 of Nationals, but the percentages are still pretty high for the top-2 teams. We'll see how well they predict.
Three of the top-4 rated teams do make the list above, the other has one of the tougher schedules and would be the 6th pick.
The chances of these teams advancing is very close for #3 vs #4, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Texas would be favored over Mid-Atlantic and Intermountain narrowly over Middle States, and Texas the pick to win the final.
Should one of the above teams falter, Northern Cal, Eastern, and Southern are most likely to take advantage of it, with Middle States and NorCal having a shot too, and Caribbean is perennially underrated and does better than expected.
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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