As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 (7 for 5.0+) average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
Next, we'll look at the 18 & Over 5.0+ women that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL. Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.
The most likely teams to make the semis are:
- Texas - 99%
- Northern California - 99%
- Southern California - 95%
- Florida - 89%
This is perhaps the most lopsided event at Nationals with a top-7 average range of 4.49 to 4.99, meaning the schedule you get is a huge influence. In fact, only 2 of the top-4 teams are in the list above, two of the teams, including one of the 99%, are there due to really easy schedules.
The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-2, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Florida would be favored over Texas and SoCal over NorCal. In the final Florida would be the pick.
Should one of the above teams falter, Pacific Northwest and Eastern would be the most likely to step up, Mid-Atlantic and Missouri are the dark horses.
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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