Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over 3.0 women (corrected)

This post was updated 10/9 to correct an error, see notes at bottom.

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

With the second weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 18 & Over 3.0 women that is coming up this weekend in Las Vegas, NV.  Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.

The most likely teams to make at least a tie for the semis are:

• Florida - 90%
• Southern Cal - 88%
• Hawaii - 85%
• Missouri Valley - 69%

I did increase the variability a bit for these predictions for week 2 of Nationals, but the percentages are still pretty high for several teams!  We'll see how well they predict.

Note also that these are not the top-4 rated teams, as schedule strengths are a factor and two of the above teams slip in to the semis without being one of the highest rated 4 due to the easiest schedule in the event while one of the top-4 rated teams has the toughest schedule and isn't one of the teams most likely to make the semis.

The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-3, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Missouri Valley would be favored over Florida and SoCal over Hawaii, and SoCal the narrow pick to win the final.

Should one of the above teams falter, NorCal and Texas are most likely to take advantage of it and advance, and Caribbean is perennially underrated and does better than expected.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Update: The original post of this prediction failed to omit those players from ESL teams that had been bumped up at year-end and are not eligible to play at their ESL level at Nationals.  This stinks for those teams, but makes the competition more fair.  Southern was dramatically impacted by this as they had 7 players bumped up to 3.5 and no longer eligible.