As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
With the fourth weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 40 & Over 3.5 men that is coming up this weekend in Arlington, TX.
The big news here is that this event seems pretty top-heavy with good teams, and most of the good teams have reasonable schedules meaning there is a very good chance, 40%, of having four undefeated teams. There is even a 16% chance of five undefeated!
That means the most likely teams to make at least a tie for 4th place are going to possibly be undefeated, those being:
- Texas
- Mid-Atlantic
- Intermountain
- Eastern
- Middle States
All of the above teams have top-7 top-10 averages, but they all have lower half schedules, it is only the weaker teams that have the tough schedules.
The chances of these teams advancing is very close for #1 thru #3, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Texas would be favored over Eastern and Intermountain narrowly over Mid-Atlantic, and Texas the pick to win the final.
Should one of the above teams falter, Northern Cal is poised to capitalize, but after that, just Midwest, Hawaii, and Southern are long shots..
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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