Saturday, October 6, 2018

Day 2 Update: 18 & Over 4.0 Men USTA League Nationals

Day 2 is complete, and we now know the semi-finalists for the 18 & Over 4.0 men.

And with the new format for Nationals, we get to see how the ties play out, how large the group tied is and what tie-breakers are ultimately used, and how equitable they are.

Here are the standings for the top-4 and ties teams listed in the order TennisLink shows. You'll note I'm including schedule strength (using my top-10 average ratings for opponents through all matches played), sets won, and games won, all not included on TennisLink.

SectionRecordScheduleCourtsSetsGames
Florida4-03.9714-629-14201-149
Southern4-03.9713-728-18215-178
Caribbean3-13.9312-828-18219-155
Texas3-13.9212-828-20205-171
New England3-13.9512-824-22183-187
Pacific NW3-13.9611-927-22200-169
MoValley3-14.0010-1025-26181-195

We see there was a 2-way tie for first at 4-0 and it was pretty easily broken by the individual courts won/lost tie-breaker.

But then there were 5 teams for 2 spots, with three of the teams being tied on courts at 12-8.  It is interesting that the two with the easier schedules came out on top of the tie-breaker as they lost fewer sets than New England, but New England's tougher schedule is very well why they were a bit back on those stats.

It is interesting that there were two 2-2 teams that were 12-8 on courts, one SoCal had the toughest schedule of all teams at 4.01 so that was likely a factor keeping them from being 3-1 and taking a semi spot.

Unlike the 5.0+ men, there does not appear to be an issue due to the flawed tie-breaker the USTA uses, but schedule strengths not being balanced could very well have been a factor.

Note that there easily could have been more teams at 3-1, so a 5-way tie could have been larger.

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