Simulating USTA League Nationals - Methodology and list of events

2018 USTA League Nationals will be starting in less than a month, and with it we will see the new format in action.  As a reminder, the new format has no flights like past years, instead each team plays 4 random opponents and the top-4 teams in the standings across all the teams advance to the semis.  Read what I wrote earlier with thoughts on the format in general.

But with the new format, without a clear cut four flight winners, it will certainly be a lot more interesting to see what happens.  I did some general 'what if' type of simulations using fictitious teams/ratings that mirrored what we often see at Nationals and that had some interesting results, but with flights and schedules showing up on TennisLink, I can ditch the fictitious simulations and do some real ones.

My methodology for the simulations is as follows.  Using my ratings, I calculate the top-10 average for each team and then play out each team's schedule picking a winner for each match.  I do a million iterations of this, randomly varying a team's top-10 average up or down a bit each match to simulate players' normal variation in play from match to match and allow each iteration to be randomly different.

The result is I can look at how often different scenarios occur like how often there will be 5 (or more!) undefeated teams and a team will get left out of the semis that doesn't lose a match, or how often there is a tie for 4th and how many teams will see their fate decided by questionable tie-breakers.

How does this different from my flight reports which many teams have used to get to and win Nationals?  First, it is using real schedules and who plays who so strength of schedule is factored in and the team with the highest ratings may not be the most likely to make the semis, or a mid-pack team may have a great shot at making the semis due to a weaker schedule.

Also, my flight reports provide a full roster average and a top-8 average to give a feel for a teams overall strength as well as how they rate when they run their best out.  For these simulations I'm using a top-10 average as few if any teams will only play their top-8.

So that explains things, and I think it is going to be fun to see what the simulations reveal.  I'm going to try to get to every division/gender/level, but will be starting with those that begin first and/or that people show interest in (hint hint, leave a comment and share with your friends so they can too), and as I complete them I'll add links to them here so this blog entry can serve as the roadmap on the methodology and all the simulations done.

Simulations and predictions written:

• 18 & Over 3.0 men - prediction
• 18 & Over 3.0 women - prediction
• 18 & Over 3.5 men
• 18 & Over 3.5 women - prediction
• 18 & Over 4.0 men - prediction
• 18 & Over 4.0 women - prediction
• 18 & Over 4.5 men
• 18 & Over 4.5 women
• 18 & Over 5.0+ men - prediction
• 18 & Over 5.0+ women - prediction

Also, see where I've written about schedule strengths and a proposal for making them more equitable.

For those fortunate to be headed to Nationals, should you be interested in doing some scouting with a flight report, team report, or more details from my simulations than I write up, contact me and I'd love to see how I can help make your Nationals experience a winning one.