Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 40 & Over 3.5 women

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

With the fourth weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 40 & Over 3.5 women that is coming up this weekend in Arlington, TX.

This event is not as top-heavy as the men's, but there are two teams separated from the rest, although one has a significantly harder schedule.  Still, both are favored to make the semis, here is the full list of those most likely:
  • Southern
  • Missouri Valley
  • Midwest
  • Southwest
  • Southern Cal

There is a mix of the top teams, and teams with easier schedules above.  Southern has the combination of the highest top-10 average and easiest schedule so are expected to be undefeated, but they may be the only one with a glut at 3-1.  The simulation says the most likely number tied is 4, 5, or 6, but there is even an 8% chance of 7 tied.

The chances of these teams advancing is very close for #4 and #5 above, so tie-breakers will come into play for who advances and the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Southern would be favored over Southwest and Missouri Valley over Midwest, and Southern the narrow pick to win the final.

Should one of the above teams falter, Pacific NorthwestNorthern Cal, TexasIntermountain, and Middle States are poised to capitalize.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

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