Day 1 Update: 18 & Over 3.5 Men USTA League Nationals

Day 1 is in the books and here is what the simulation looks like now.

Five teams are undefeated, and there is a scenario where they all remain so, but just a 0.2% chance of it happening according to my simulation.

Four teams at 4-0 is possible, but just a 6% chance, so we are likely to have a tie for 4th again.  Here are the teams most likely to be in at least a tie for 4th in order of likelihood:

• Intermountain
• Northern Cal
• Southern
• Florida
• Middle States
• Pacific Northwest
• Eastern
• Mid-Atlantic
• Caribbean

Three of the above were highlighted in the original prediction, just Texas a surprising absentee.

A few other teams could get to 3-1, but it is pretty doubtful.  Although, there is a 2.6% chance the tie for 4th is with a 2-2 record.

Some really key matches in the morning with Florida playing Caribbean, Eastern vs Middle States, and Mid-Atlantic vs PNW.  The result of those will go a long way to deciding things.