Friday, October 19, 2018

Day 1 Update: 40 & Over 4.5+ Women USTA League Nationals

Day 1 is in the books and here is what the simulation looks like now.

Six teams are undefeated, but it appears there is no scenario where they can all remain undefeated, nor even five or four of them undefeated.  It appears we'll have a tie for at least 4th at 3-1 again.

Here are the teams most likely to be in at least a tie for 4th in order of likelihood:
  • Southern
  • Northern Cal
  • Southern Cal
  • Missouri Valley
  • Pacific NW
  • New England
  • Texas

Three of the above were highlighted in the original prediction, just Florida is missing, but they are missing two of their top-3 players it appears so that may explain it.

The first three have a 4-0 record as the most likely, so a four way tie at 3-1 for one spots is expected, and a few other teams are more likely to finish 2-2 but could join the fray at 3-1, Eastern the most likely one.

Some key matches tomorrow include SoCal vs MoValley, NorCal vs MoValley, and Pacific NW vs Eastern.  Those will go a long way to determining who advances.

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