Simulating 2018 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 5.0+ Men

My ninth simulation of USTA League Nationals using the new format for 2018 is the 18 & Over 5.0+ men.  You can see all simulations here.

This event has the just 16 teams, Hawaii seems to be missing.

Using my ratings' top-7 averages (5.0+ plays three courts so using top-7 rather than top-10), the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.

The range of top-7 averages is very large for this group, 4.62 to 5.05, but there six at 4.90 or higher so it isn't completely a runway for the top teams.

With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis.  The chances are exceedingly slim though, just once in the million simulations were there 6, and there is just a 2.4% chance for four to be undefeated.  Note that there is no way to guarantee just 4 with 16 teams but 5 could be guaranteed.

In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, but as noted above, there is just a 2.4% of this.

This helps result in an 89% chance of having a tie for 4th place.  The most likely number of teams in the tie is a good sized 4 (33%), and the chances 3 are also very good at 31%, so there is a good chance of a good sized tie, 5 even has a 14% chance.  The largest number the simulation shows is "just" 11.

When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 11% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably most of that 11% of the time.  The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two 88% of the time.

It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and 97% of the time they'll have 3 and just 2.4% of the time they'll have 4, but in over 4 thousand of the million simulations, 4th place had just 2 wins!

Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis.  In this case, the top team has the 3rd easiest schedule so they are a near lock to advance to the semis, and the second highest rated team has an easier schedule too.  The team with the hardest schedule is a traditional power and has a pretty slim chance of advancing to the semis due to their schedule.

That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is.  That would be Intermountain and Pacific Northwest.

If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.