Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 40 & Over 4.5+ men

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

With the third weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 40 & Over 4.5+ men that is coming up this weekend in Las Vegas, NV.

The simulation is pretty standard for this event, a 5% chance of four undefeated, and less than 1% chance of 5.  But there are a couple teams that are pretty big favorites to make at least a tie for the semis, the four most likely being:
  • Southern Cal - 95%
  • Florida - 84%
  • Northern Cal - 69%
  • Mid-Atlantic - 68%

The chances of these teams advancing is very close for #3 and #4, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, SoCal would be favored over Mid-Atlantic and Florida over NorCal, and Florida the pick to win the final.

Should one of the above teams falter, Pacific NW is poised to capitalize, but after that, Midwest and Eastern are most likely.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

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