This event has only 16 teams, Southwest is missing from the schedule as I write this, so we'll simulate with 16 rather than the normal 17.
Using my ratings' top-10 averages, the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.
The range of top-10 averages is pretty large for this group, from 3.36 all the way to 3.64, but the highest rated 9 teams are all at 3.49 or higher.
With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis. The chances are pretty slim, just 0.13% chance of 5 teams finishing undefeated, so it is pretty slim chance Note that there is no way to guarantee just 4 with 16 teams.
In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, and the simulation says there is an 8.4% chance of this happening.
That means though that there is nearly a 91% chance of having a tie for 4th place. The most likely number of teams in the tie is 3 (29%), but the chances of 4 or 5 is 27% and 22% respectively, so there is a good chance of a good sized tie. The largest number the simulation shows is 9.
When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 11% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably that 11% of the time. The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two, but 12% of the time it will be 3 or more.
It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and 91% of the time they'll have 3 and 8.5% of the time they'll have 4, but in 25 of the million simulations, 4th place had just 2 wins!
Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis. However, for this event, the top-2 teams apparently don't have hard schedules or are that much better as they have a 99% and 98% chance of at least being in a tie for 4th. However, the next most likely is the #6 team, the #3 thru #5 teams have tougher schedules and have a 70%, 79%, and 57% chance of at least being in a tie for 4th.
Interestingly, the #11 team has a 60% chance of at least tying for 4th, so they seem to have a pretty easy schedule.
That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is. That would be Texas. Who are teams outside the top-6 by the ratings but might surprise? Look for Southern to have a good shot.
If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.
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