This event has the full 17 teams.
Using my ratings' top-10 averages, the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.
The range of top-10 averages is very large for this group, 2.83 to 3.21, but there are only two over 3.11, the top-2 teams having a gap back to the rest. Will this make them the favorites?
With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis. The chances are actually pretty good, a 3.9% chance of 5 teams finishing undefeated, and even 2,046 of the million simulations had 6 teams undefeated. Note that there is no way to guarantee just 4 with 17 teams but 5 could be guaranteed.
In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, and the simulation says there is a very good chance at 23%.
This leaves a nearly 77% chance of having a tie for 4th place. The most likely number of teams in the tie is a whopping 5 (38%), and the chances of 6 or 7 is over 24%, so there is a good chance of a good sized tie, perhaps the largest of all the events so far. The largest number the simulation shows is "just" 10.
When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 9% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably most of that 9% of the time. The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two 93% of the time.
It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and just 72% of the time they'll have 3 and 27% of the time they'll have 4, but in 7 of the million simulations, 4th place had just 2 wins!
Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis. In this case, the top team has one of the easier schedules so they are a near lock to advance to the semis. The team with the hardest schedule is the weakest team so they have no shot at the semis according to the simulation. The team with the easiest schedule is the #10 team and even being #10, they have an 80% chance of finishing at least in a tie for 4th.
That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is. That would be Southern to make the semis, and Florida may surprise.
If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.
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