Sunday, September 30, 2012

College Football Week 5 Projections - And then there we none projected undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 3 are now available.

And there are now no teams projected to be undefeated.  Alabama's drop in the ratings make it slightly more likely (42%) that they lose one game than lose none (39%).  Similarly, Ohio U. had a narrow win over a bad Massachusetts team and is projected with one loss.

The team now with the best chance of finishing with one loss is FSU at just over 50%.  They also have a decent (24%) chance of finishing undefeated.  Interestingly, Rutgers is projected to have the best shot at undefeated (39%) and still has a 44% chance of a one loss season.

The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Florida St11-150.223.522.1
Rutgers11-144.439.014.5
Ohio U.11-144.034.618.4
Georgia11-143.814.135.9
Oregon11-142.835.518.0
Florida11-142.326.324.3
Alabama11-142.238.716.3
Clemson10-265.023.411.0
Boise St10-249.721.225.2
Louisiana Tech10-247.317.128.6
Western Kentucky10-244.723.226.1
Toledo10-243.016.932.3
San Jose St10-241.939.116.1
Louisville10-240.326.523.8
South Carolina10-239.322.626.7
Texas A&M10-236.610.734.1
Notre Dame10-236.433.416.2
Texas10-236.426.822.0
Northern Illinois10-234.812.234.7
Nevada10-234.514.832.0
Purdue10-234.314.331.5
Northwestern10-233.417.829.5
Kansas St10-232.624.123.5
Ohio State10-232.319.827.1
Texas Tech10-230.817.728.0