Sunday, September 16, 2012

College Football Week 3 Projections - Only Ohio U. projected to be undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 3 are now available.

Only Ohio U. is now projected to be undefeated at 71%.  LSU was last week, but just barely, and they dropped just enough, and some future opponents improved, that a 1-loss season is now more likely, but still at 25% chance of no losses.

What about Alabama?  They, like last week are projected to have 1 loss mainly due to having to play LSU on the road.  But they have a 31% chance of no losses.  Georgia also is projected at 1 loss but has a 31% chance of none.  Of course, any team that may make it through the regular season undefeated in the SEC will have to also win the championship game to go to a bowl undefeated.

There is a big group of teams projected at 2 losses, among the most interesting candidates, the Oregon/Stanford winner may have a decent shot at scaring an undefeated year, and if Notre Dame can continue to impress and get past Oklahoma and USC they could do so too.  Florida State will likely be favored in every game and get Clemson and Florida at home, but has to go to Miami too.

The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Ohio U.12-070.80.025.8
Boise St11-152.40.036.2
Alabama11-148.730.917.8
Georgia11-144.130.520.8
LSU11-143.324.825.1
Toledo10-246.418.729.1
Louisville10-240.321.426.9
Rutgers10-238.127.321.9
Clemson10-237.918.828.5
Western Kentucky10-237.215.631.9
Notre Dame10-235.427.121.7
Oregon10-235.322.925.6
San Jose St10-235.115.631.0
Florida St10-232.025.721.8
Cincinnati10-231.828.319.7
Stanford10-231.815.231.4