Saturday, September 29, 2012

NFL Week 3 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections - What if Green Bay had won?

There are always games that occur during a season where you can say "what if" and it might be interesting to recalculate ratings as if a different result occurred.  But rarely if ever has there ever been such a clear cut case of a call on the last play of the game that changed the result than we had last Monday in the Green Bay at Seattle game.

With that in mind, below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 3 ratings.  You'll see that the teams would basically swap positions 4 and 8, but a few other teams move slightly as well.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Houston93.0523-083.054+0, +0.021
2Atlanta91.1883-082.373+0, +0.014
3Arizona90.4083-084.673+0, -0.377
4Baltimore88.4942-182.426+1, -0.041
5Green Bay87.5432-184.980+4, +1.715
6New England87.5261-285.506+0, -0.107
7San Francisco87.3952-183.426+0, +0.428
8Seattle86.8271-285.950-4, -1.882
9Denver86.7601-288.019-1, +0.001
10San Diego84.1382-179.274+0, -0.020
11Chicago83.7172-178.575+1, +0.479
12NY Jets83.1862-182.106+1, +0.015
13Dallas82.8982-182.914-2, -0.507
14Pittsburgh82.8171-282.655+0, -0.011
15Philadelphia82.6672-185.455+0, -0.096
16NY Giants81.2362-177.239+0, -0.150
17Miami81.1361-282.752+0, -0.013
18Minnesota80.2212-178.784+1, +0.136
19Cincinnati80.0852-181.533-1, -0.006
20Detroit79.5131-280.834+0, +0.086
21Buffalo79.3652-177.956+0, -0.008
22Washington78.6421-277.316+0, +0.016
23Jacksonville78.2661-283.321+0, +0.060
24Tampa Bay77.6791-280.425+0, -0.147
25St Louis77.4911-281.624+0, +0.134
26Oakland75.0181-281.697+0, +0.022
27Tennessee74.6161-282.726+0, +0.020
28Cleveland74.4630-379.706+0, -0.019
29Carolina74.1411-275.762+0, -0.070
30Indianapolis73.6911-279.735+0, +0.134
31Kansas City73.2201-281.642+0, -0.009
32New Orleans71.3720-374.334+0, -0.005

And in the projected records, the change would not change Green Bay winning their division, although they'd be 12-4 rather than 10-6, but Seattle's record would change from 12-4 to 10-6 and that would tie them with Philadelphia and San Francisco but they'd be the least likely to be at that record or better so could change the wildcard position.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Houston15-136.218.529.0
Atlanta14-230.928.119.5
Arizona13-327.919.224.6
Green Bay12-427.717.525.8
Denver11-532.925.022.3
Baltimore11-525.324.517.5
New England10-625.422.819.1
Dallas10-624.317.922.6
Philadelphia10-624.321.119.6
San Francisco10-624.023.716.7
San Diego10-623.722.018.1
Seattle10-623.316.822.5
Chicago9-724.419.321.3
Pittsburgh9-724.019.121.1
NY Jets9-722.416.222.2
NY Giants8-823.421.418.1
Cincinnati8-822.420.517.9
Tampa Bay7-928.926.418.2
Buffalo7-925.121.919.5
Miami7-924.821.619.4
Minnesota7-924.722.218.7
Oakland6-1026.319.523.1
Jacksonville6-1024.423.816.8
Washington6-1023.919.121.1
Detroit5-1127.618.026.4
Tennessee5-1124.917.324.3
Carolina5-1124.718.722.5
Indianapolis4-1229.322.123.1
Kansas City4-1227.924.719.1
St Louis3-1327.826.316.8
Cleveland3-1326.624.617.9
New Orleans1-1539.328.519.1

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.