NFL Week 3 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections - What if Green Bay had won?

There are always games that occur during a season where you can say "what if" and it might be interesting to recalculate ratings as if a different result occurred.  But rarely if ever has there ever been such a clear cut case of a call on the last play of the game that changed the result than we had last Monday in the Green Bay at Seattle game.

With that in mind, below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 3 ratings.  You'll see that the teams would basically swap positions 4 and 8, but a few other teams move slightly as well.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	93.052	3-0	83.054	+0, +0.021
2	Atlanta	91.188	3-0	82.373	+0, +0.014
3	Arizona	90.408	3-0	84.673	+0, -0.377
4	Baltimore	88.494	2-1	82.426	+1, -0.041
5	Green Bay	87.543	2-1	84.980	+4, +1.715
6	New England	87.526	1-2	85.506	+0, -0.107
7	San Francisco	87.395	2-1	83.426	+0, +0.428
8	Seattle	86.827	1-2	85.950	-4, -1.882
9	Denver	86.760	1-2	88.019	-1, +0.001
10	San Diego	84.138	2-1	79.274	+0, -0.020
11	Chicago	83.717	2-1	78.575	+1, +0.479
12	NY Jets	83.186	2-1	82.106	+1, +0.015
13	Dallas	82.898	2-1	82.914	-2, -0.507
14	Pittsburgh	82.817	1-2	82.655	+0, -0.011
15	Philadelphia	82.667	2-1	85.455	+0, -0.096
16	NY Giants	81.236	2-1	77.239	+0, -0.150
17	Miami	81.136	1-2	82.752	+0, -0.013
18	Minnesota	80.221	2-1	78.784	+1, +0.136
19	Cincinnati	80.085	2-1	81.533	-1, -0.006
20	Detroit	79.513	1-2	80.834	+0, +0.086
21	Buffalo	79.365	2-1	77.956	+0, -0.008
22	Washington	78.642	1-2	77.316	+0, +0.016
23	Jacksonville	78.266	1-2	83.321	+0, +0.060
24	Tampa Bay	77.679	1-2	80.425	+0, -0.147
25	St Louis	77.491	1-2	81.624	+0, +0.134
26	Oakland	75.018	1-2	81.697	+0, +0.022
27	Tennessee	74.616	1-2	82.726	+0, +0.020
28	Cleveland	74.463	0-3	79.706	+0, -0.019
29	Carolina	74.141	1-2	75.762	+0, -0.070
30	Indianapolis	73.691	1-2	79.735	+0, +0.134
31	Kansas City	73.220	1-2	81.642	+0, -0.009
32	New Orleans	71.372	0-3	74.334	+0, -0.005

And in the projected records, the change would not change Green Bay winning their division, although they'd be 12-4 rather than 10-6, but Seattle's record would change from 12-4 to 10-6 and that would tie them with Philadelphia and San Francisco but they'd be the least likely to be at that record or better so could change the wildcard position.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	15-1	36.2	18.5	29.0
Atlanta	14-2	30.9	28.1	19.5
Arizona	13-3	27.9	19.2	24.6
Green Bay	12-4	27.7	17.5	25.8
Denver	11-5	32.9	25.0	22.3
Baltimore	11-5	25.3	24.5	17.5
New England	10-6	25.4	22.8	19.1
Dallas	10-6	24.3	17.9	22.6
Philadelphia	10-6	24.3	21.1	19.6
San Francisco	10-6	24.0	23.7	16.7
San Diego	10-6	23.7	22.0	18.1
Seattle	10-6	23.3	16.8	22.5
Chicago	9-7	24.4	19.3	21.3
Pittsburgh	9-7	24.0	19.1	21.1
NY Jets	9-7	22.4	16.2	22.2
NY Giants	8-8	23.4	21.4	18.1
Cincinnati	8-8	22.4	20.5	17.9
Tampa Bay	7-9	28.9	26.4	18.2
Buffalo	7-9	25.1	21.9	19.5
Miami	7-9	24.8	21.6	19.4
Minnesota	7-9	24.7	22.2	18.7
Oakland	6-10	26.3	19.5	23.1
Jacksonville	6-10	24.4	23.8	16.8
Washington	6-10	23.9	19.1	21.1
Detroit	5-11	27.6	18.0	26.4
Tennessee	5-11	24.9	17.3	24.3
Carolina	5-11	24.7	18.7	22.5
Indianapolis	4-12	29.3	22.1	23.1
Kansas City	4-12	27.9	24.7	19.1
St Louis	3-13	27.8	26.3	16.8
Cleveland	3-13	26.6	24.6	17.9
New Orleans	1-15	39.3	28.5	19.1

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.