Sunday, September 9, 2012

College Football Week 2 Projections - LSU and Ohio U. now undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 2 are now available.

There are still two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated, but they are now Ohio U. and LSU, Ohio U. at a healthy 70% chance.  LSU is just above 50% with a 1-loss season a 41% chance.

The teams with the best chance to join/replace those two include Alabama (35% chance), Georgia (15%), and Louisville (22%).  The projected result of the Alabama/LSU game is what changed to move LSU up and Alabama down, and was because while Alabama remained #1, LSU closed the gap and their game is at LSU giving them the edge.

What about a Pac-12 or B1G team?  Oregon has won easily, but has given up a fair number of points which the computer factors in and is projected to have 2 losses with a 28% chance of 1 loss and an 8% chance of no losses.  USC has not impressed the computer thus far and is projected to have 3 losses, but a 22% chance of just 2, a 9% chance of 1, and a 2% chance of none.

Michigan State is projected to have 2 losses, but a health 30% chance at 1 and 11% chance of none.  Ohio State is also projected to have 2 losses, but not as good a shot at better with a 14% chance of 1 and 2% chance of none.

With 2 games played by most teams, there is more data, but this is still awfully early and things can change, and with games this upcoming week such as USC at Stanford, Notre Dame at Michigan State, Alabama at Arkansas, and others, we could know quite a bit more in a week.

The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Ohio U.12-069.90.026.2
LSU12-051.30.041.3
Alabama11-159.934.75.3
Boise St11-144.30.039.8
Georgia11-138.515.431.2
Louisville11-138.322.027.1
Northern Illinois10-236.417.330.2
Oregon10-235.728.120.8
Cincinnati10-234.324.124.0
Michigan St10-232.730.018.7
Clemson10-231.920.126.2
Arizona St10-231.619.926.4
Ohio State10-231.414.231.0
Kansas St10-231.218.627.3
Baylor10-230.519.326.4