Sunday, September 2, 2012

Preliminary Week 1 College Football Ratings

I will be computing the week 1 ratings after the Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech game tomorrow, but here is the preliminary top-50 based on games played through yesterday.  Standard caveats apply, these ratings are heavily influenced by last years rating and a single game this year can only tell so much, but it is still interesting to look at where teams fall and what has changed.

Alabama remains #1 after their comfortable win over Michigan.  The surprise is Oklahoma State isn't that far behind at their 84-0 win.  This result will carry very little weight after they play more meaningful games, so they'll need to back that result up to stay there.

LSU is #3 but quite a ways back, dropping quite a few points after beating North Texas 41-14.  Oregon is #4 and Boise State, even though they lost, is up to #5.  How can Boise State lose and move up?  Well, their rating actually went down nearly 2.5 points, but they benefited from Arkansas playing an FCS team and dropping 5 ratings points.

A big mover this week was Nebraska, up 18 spots and over 6 ratings points to #7 after easily handling a Southern Miss that was very good last year.  Now, Southern Miss may not be as good as last year, but until they play other games that show that, Nebraska is getting credit for a very good win.

Michigan State moved up 8 spots to #11 after a quality win over Boise State.  However, if Boise State proves to be a notch below what they've been in the past, a close win at home, while still a good win, won't be quite as impressive.

Notre Dame is up 11 spots to #12 after a 50-10 drubbing of a decent Navy team.  This may be an indication that things are looking up for the Irish.

Several other bigger name teams made moves into the top-30 after down years last year including Tennessee, Ohio State, Clemson, and BYU.

Look for the full ratings Monday night, and more updates as the games are played.

1Alabama96.9191-078.019+0, +0.773
2Oklahoma St94.6721-017.827+1, +7.203
3LSU87.8891-059.455-1, -6.107
4Oregon84.7401-063.875+0, -0.815
5Boise St81.6580-183.246+1, -2.425
6Oklahoma81.6121-065.720+1, -1.788
7Nebraska81.3041-066.001+18, +6.424
8Southern Cal80.9871-057.949+3, +1.377
9South Carolina80.8031-076.914+1, +0.112
10Arkansas80.3231-053.950-5, -5.117
11Michigan St80.2461-078.658+8, +2.425
12Notre Dame79.7831-062.628+11, +4.195
13Texas A&M79.1370-00.000+0, +0.000
14Baylor79.0070-00.000+0, +0.000
15Michigan78.0190-196.919+0, -0.773
16TCU77.9510-00.000+2, -0.000
17Georgia77.5701-056.027-5, -1.891
18West Virginia77.5561-057.477+9, +3.275
19Wisconsin77.4631-067.946-10, -4.543
20Texas77.3131-059.652+1, +0.972
21Kansas St76.8131-051.405-1, -0.100
22Florida St76.5961-047.946+0, +0.493
23Tennessee76.4771-066.262+12, +3.806
24Stanford76.0321-066.556-16, -6.515
25Ohio State75.4571-055.232+18, +4.443
26Clemson75.3641-071.145+11, +2.797
27Brigham Young74.6311-057.237+13, +2.863
28Iowa St74.4571-064.628+26, +5.200
29Missouri74.3261-042.009-12, -3.674
30Vanderbilt73.9140-177.803-1, -0.112
31Florida73.7271-060.181-3, -0.550
32Arizona St73.7191-048.885+10, +2.073
33Virginia Tech73.5480-00.000-2, -0.000
34Nevada73.5381-070.703+18, +4.189
35Mississippi St73.3751-046.009-9, -0.910
36Cincinnati73.3170-00.000-4, +0.000
37Ohio U.73.2771-069.506+25, +6.267
38Miami FL72.5541-065.444+9, +1.902
39Louisiana Tech71.9420-00.000-1, +0.000
40Illinois71.7511-059.507+23, +4.784
41North Carolina71.3871-045.442+10, +1.805
42South Florida71.2451-054.753+15, +2.552
43UCLA71.2331-059.356+23, +4.531
44Iowa71.1791-070.481+0, +0.305
45Auburn71.1450-175.364-15, -2.797
46Utah St70.8411-053.026+22, +4.587
47Northern Illinois70.4810-171.179-2, -0.305
48Washington70.4691-062.696+7, +1.235
49Georgia Tech69.5870-00.000+1, -0.000
50San Jose St69.5560-179.032+34, +6.515