Sunday, October 31, 2010

2010 Week 9 College Football Projections; Oregon, TCU, and Boise State undefeated

Here are the projected records for the regular season using results through week 9 of the season.  Full projections on the site.

And then there were five.  With Missouri and Michigan State losing, there are just five undefeated teams remaining.  And that results in still three being projected to finish that way.

There is a change in the chances for those three with Oregon now with a 71% chance of no losses against a 26% chance of one, TCU at 56% and 44%, and Boise State at 55% and 38%.  All now have a better chance of no losses than any other result.

TCU has what will be their stiffest test next week visiting #7 Utah, but they have #44 San Diego State left too.  Boise State has #35 Hawaii next week then #22 Nevada in a month.  Oregon has the toughest schedule with #9 Arizona, #14 Oregon State, #24 California, and #45 Washington left, but they are rated so highly they are expected to breeze through.

What of the other 2?

Utah as noted above must play TCU, but they are still projected to finish with just that one loss and a 29% chance of none.

Auburn still hosts #36 Georgia, but then must go to #12 Alabama resulting in a 60% chance of the one loss projected record, but 34% chance of undefeated.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Oregon12-071.40.025.6
TCU12-055.60.043.9
Boise St12-054.90.038.2
Michigan St11-174.20.025.4
Wisconsin11-173.90.024.6
Missouri11-167.40.029.3
Auburn11-160.433.85.9
Nebraska11-151.90.039.1
Utah11-150.729.318.1