Sunday, October 17, 2010

2010 BCS Rankings Prediction - First Release - Oklahoma #1, Oregon #2, Boise State #3

Brad Edwards on ESPN reported last week that if released last week, Boise State would have been #1.  I did some quick analysis and confirmed that, but with all the changes in the top-10 this week, I updated my analysis and it shows Oklahoma should be #1 when the BCS rankings are released later today.

My analysis is based on taking the computer's rankings that are available (Sagarin), those that publish their algorithm that I've reproduced (Colley Matrix), and guessing at the changes for the three others that have been releasing their rankings.  I've also included the latest Coaches poll and guessed at updates to the Harris poll.

Here is the rough result:

1 Oklahoma 0.9244
2 Oregon 0.9215
3 Boise State0.9189
4 TCU 0.8606
5 Auburn 0.8310
6 LSU 0.8113
7 Alabama 0.7327
8 Michigan State 0.7188
9 Utah 0.6516
10 Ohio State 0.5847

Oklahoma makes its move based primarily on the computer where they should be a near unanimous #1.  Oregon's #1 in both polls is offset by the computers having them around #7 and with Boise State #4 in the computers, the gap is there, narrow as it is, for OU to slip in.  It is very close though so any slight error in my extrapolation/guessing could change it so any of the 3 are #1.

There is a bit of a gap to #4 TCU with Auburn and LSU fairly close for #5 and #6 (they should be #2 and #3 in the computers).  It is interesting that it appears Alabama will be #7 ahead of undefeated Michigan State and Utah, although Michigan State is close so could eke by.

We'll see how close this is!