Sunday, October 17, 2010

Comparing the BCS Computers to the Schmidt Computer

In my last entry, I pointed out a flaw in the BCS computers being that they aren't allowed to use the scores or margin of victory (MOV) in their algorithms.  I also pointed out that my algorithm does take it into account, but does so in a way that doesn't reward running up the score against strong opponents but allows it against weak opponents in order to not punish a team too much for not playing a strong opponent every game.

Since I've gone out and made that statement, lets compare my rankings to the BCS computer average.  The table below lists the two with the difference, red where the BCS is too high and blue where it is too low.

TeamBCS RankSchmidt ComputerDifference
Oklahoma 1 6 5
Oregon 8 1 7
Boise State 7 3 4
Auburn 3 10 7
TCU 5 2 3
LSU 2 18 16
Michigan State 4 7 3
Alabama 12 15 3
Utah 11 8 3
Ohio State 14 14 0
Missouri 6 5 1
Stanford 10 4 6
Wisconsin 16 20 4
Oklahoma State 9 22 13
Iowa 17 9 8
Nebraska 20 11 9
Florida State 13 17 4
Arizona 15 16 1
Texas 18 28 10
West Virginia 22 49 27
South Carolina 23 19 4
Kansas State 19 36 17
Arkansas 28 31 3
Mississippi State 21 29 8
Virginia Tech 2824 4

What do you think?  Which set of rankings is more realistic?

To see if we can determine which is more accurate, I'll keep track of which does better picking winners between BCS top-25 games the rest of the year.

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