Sunday, October 10, 2010

Checking up on the polls; anti Pac-10 bias, SEC ranked too high

As we get to the point that the BCS rankings will be coming out, let's take a look at how the polls stack up against my computer's rankings to see where they may be off.

Below is the AP top-25  with columns for the Coaches poll and my computer with a comment on why the computer ranks them where they do for each.  Red numbers indicate a team the polls have too high, green too low, both where difference is 3 or greater.

Ohio State 1 1 4 5 of 6 at home, all opps at least 2 losses
Oregon 2 2 1 Big win over 1 loss Stanford
Boise St. 3 3 3 Beat good Va Tech and Oregon St.
TCU 4 5 5 Beat good Oregon St. rolled others
Nebraska 5 4 2 Rolled over K-State and UW on road
Oklahoma 6 6 12 Beat FSU easily, others close, 6 too high
Auburn 7 7 23 Beat South Carolina but close, others very close, 7 too high
Alabama 8 8 9 Arkansas and Florida good wins, but the 1 loss
LSU 9 9 17 Lots of close games, haven't impressed even with no loss
South Carolina 10 12 14 Big win over Alabama, but close against not so good Georgia
Utah 11 10 16 No opponent thus far has a winning record
Arkansas 12 13 22 Close games haven't impressed
Michigan St. 13 11 18 Only 1 road game and that still in Michigan
Stanford 14 15 7 Only loss to undefeated Oregon, 14/15 too low
Iowa 15 14 10 Only loss to 1-loss Arizona on the road
Florida St. 16 17 11 Only loss to undefeated OU, easily won others
Arizona 17 20 13 Only loss to good Oregon St.
Wisconsin 18 16 35 Lost only game against opp with winning record
Nevada 19 21 6 Handily beat a pretty good Cal, handled others easily
Oklahoma St. 20 18 29 Only good opp beat by only 3 at home
Missouri 21 19 15 Only one opp as a losing record
Florida 22 22 28 Lost to only 2 good opps
Air Force 23 23 26 About right
Oregon St. 24 29 21 Only losses to 2 undefeateds
West Virginia 25 25 36 Lost to only good opp, Maryland's 4-1 a sham

There is a surprising amount of red, most of it being for SEC teams (5 of 11) which is common as everyone thinks the SEC is far and away the toughest conference.  But they play no one out of conference so this is mostly perception and it is hard to say for sure and the computer says they aren't as good as perceived.

Other conferences have teams going both ways, the Big-12 with Nebraska and Missouri too low, OU and OSU too high,  and the Big Televen has tOSU, MSU, and Wisconsin too high with Iowa too low.

The Pac-10 though is all too low with Stanford, Arizona, and Oregon St, typical bias against the Pac-10. It is also interesting to note how the coaches are more biased against the Pac-10 than the writers with the Coaches lower rankings for those teams highlighted in purple above.  Especially Oregon State, with 2 losses to undefeated opponents, not ranked by the coaches?  The beneficiary of the coaches bias is the Big-12 highlighted in blue.