Sunday, October 31, 2010

2010 Week 9 College Football Ratings and Rankings; Oregon #1, TCU #2, Boise State #3; Auburn #10!

And Oregon is still #1.  Not only that, their rating margin over #2 TCU is now nearly 7 points.  According to my computer, they are the far and away clear #1, BCS be damned.  And so far my computer is picking games between BCS top-25 teams 2 games better than the BCS rankings.  Full rankings on the site, but top-30 below for quick reference.

There is naturally some movement behind with Missouri and Michigan State dropping and Nebraska and Iowa moving up, but OU suffers from the Missouri loss having just lost to them last week.  Stanford's whitewashing of UW also moves them up a few spots back to #4.  With their only loss on the road to far and away #1 Oregon, hard to argue with that.

What about Auburn you say?  They did move up some with their win, but are only #10.  That may not pass the smell test, but when you look at their performance chart you can begin to understand.

Auburn is winning, but especially early in the season was not doing so impressively.  Mississippi State at #30 isn't a bad team, but Auburn won by only 3, Clemson is only 4-4 and #43 and Auburn won by only 3 at home, the win over #17 and 6-2 South Carolina was a little better by 8, but then they win by only 3 against a #56 and 4-5 Kentucky?  Their most impressive win was against 6-2 and #25 Arkansas.  So they are winning, but not in dominating fashion against any of their quality opponents, and they have close wins against bad opponents, even at home.

Interested in charts for all the teams?  Subscribe to the newsletter!

The computer continued it prowess in picking games going 30-23-1 in all games and 2-1 in locks meaning 3 consecutive winning weeks.  After some of the strangeness early in the year, the computer seems dialed in.  See the prediction performance for more details.

1Oregon93.3328-065.628+0, +1.717
2TCU86.3919-063.364+0, -0.473
3Boise St84.3097-063.233+1, -0.447
4Stanford83.1777-170.011+2, +0.860
5Nebraska83.1647-166.546+4, +1.721
6Iowa82.7816-265.920+5, +1.661
7Utah81.7708-060.311-2, -1.901
8Missouri81.6537-168.662-5, -3.375
9Arizona81.2727-167.188+3, +0.190
10Auburn80.4739-067.665+3, -0.590
11Oklahoma80.4187-169.449-4, -1.538
12Alabama80.3557-167.036+3, -0.055
13Ohio State80.0108-162.308-5, -1.945
14Oregon St79.1484-376.978+10, +2.399
15Southern Cal78.9475-372.095-1, -1.745
16Wisconsin78.4827-163.538+1, -1.251
17South Carolina77.7666-267.216+4, -1.296
18Oklahoma St77.3417-165.455+8, +1.696
19Michigan St77.1568-165.267-9, -4.169
20LSU77.0497-167.195+2, -0.860
21Florida St77.0476-266.408-3, -2.570
22Nevada76.5207-160.502-2, -2.590
23Virginia Tech76.1746-263.504+0, -0.654
24California76.1214-472.312-8, -3.643
25Arkansas75.8246-266.408+2, +0.198
26Arizona St75.8214-470.783-1, -0.730
27Miami FL75.2265-367.838-8, -4.320
28Pittsburgh74.3675-366.598+1, -0.424
29Florida74.2975-368.793+4, -0.024
30Mississippi St74.2137-264.357-2, -0.763