And then there were 7. With Oklahoma, LSU, and Oklahoma State all losing, there are just 7 undefeated teams remaining. And that results in 3 being projected to finish that way now.
Those three are TCU, new from last week and projected to have a 49.9% chance of undefeated against a 49.3% chance of one loss, Boise State at 45% and 43.9%, and Oregon at 44.1% vs 41.1%. So no slam dunk for any of them, a one loss record being almost as likely as undefeated. But there is a very good shot at least one of them does it.
What of the other 4?
Michigan State has a 33% chance of pulling it off, but with Iowa on the schedule for next week has a better shot of one loss at 62%.
Auburn improved their chances after their win against LSU, but must still play Alabama giving them a 34% chance of undefeated but 58% of one loss.
Missouri would be favored in the rest of their games this year and results in a 39% of an undefeated season, but with Nebraska on the schedule for next week and an Iowa State team that has given some teams some trouble several weeks later, one loss is more likely at 48%.
Utah must face TCU in a couple weeks and while they very well could win that game and finish undefeated, that has only a 25% chance and one loss is more likely at 45%.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| TCU | 12-0 | 49.9 | 0.0 | 49.3 |
| Boise St | 12-0 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 43.9 |
| Oregon | 12-0 | 44.1 | 0.0 | 41.1 |
| Wisconsin | 11-1 | 70.4 | 0.0 | 27.8 |
| Michigan St | 11-1 | 62.2 | 32.6 | 5.1 |
| Auburn | 11-1 | 58.4 | 34.0 | 7.4 |
| Missouri | 11-1 | 47.9 | 39.0 | 12.2 |
| Utah | 11-1 | 44.9 | 25.1 | 24.3 |
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