Tuesday, October 12, 2010

2010 NFL Week 5 Projections; Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Jets all 13-3, 10-6 Titans miss the playoffs

The computers projected records are up and they are interesting.

It is probably no surprise that the AFC is stronger, but with 7 of the best 10 records (10-6 and above), one of those 10-6 AFC teams will be left out of the playoffs.  Right now the computer says it will be Tennessee, but they are tied with Indianapolis at 10-6 and the nod goes to the Colts right now simply because they have a slightly better chance of finishing 10-6.  Those two games in weeks 14 and 17 will have an awful lot of meaning.

The other AFC teams aren't a surprise either being Baltimore and Pittsburgh also tied but both making it at 13-3, the Jets, Kansas City, and New England.  After the Titans at 10-6 things drop off to a group of 8-8 teams, the dangerous one there being San Diego.

In the NFC it could be a lot more competitive with 11 teams a 7-9 or better and an 8-8 team making it.  Right now the teams would be Atlanta, Chicago, the Giants, and Arizona, with Tampa Bay and Green Bay the wildcards.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Baltimore 13-3 33.5 23.0 24.7
Pittsburgh 13-3 31.8 22.8 24.0
NY Jets 13-3 29.6 15.5 28.8
Atlanta 12-4 27.5 20.8 22.8
Kansas City 12-4 26.3 18.7 23.7
New England 11-5 23.9 17.2 22.8
Tampa Bay 10-6 25.6 22.2 19.8
Indianapolis 10-6 25.4 22.1 19.8
Chicago 10-6 24.9 24.2 17.1
Tennessee 10-6 24.3 17.8 22.7
Green Bay 9-7 26.3 25.4 17.4
NY Giants 9-7 24.0 20.8 19.6
Arizona 8-8 24.3 22.2 18.4
Denver 8-8 24.1 17.1 23.2
Jacksonville 8-8 24.1 17.2 23.2
Philadelphia 8-8 24.0 21.7 18.6
Washington 8-8 23.9 17.1 23.2
San Diego 8-8 23.8 16.9 23.2
Cincinnati 7-9 32.3 20.5 25.9
Miami 7-9 25.3 18.6 23.1
Houston 7-9 25.0 21.8 19.5
St Louis 7-9 23.9 23.1 17.0
Seattle 7-9 23.8 21.8 18.2
Dallas 7-9 23.7 18.4 21.6
New Orleans 6-10 29.2 25.3 19.5
Oakland 6-10 26.0 17.4 25.1
Minnesota 6-10 24.7 22.2 18.7
Detroit 6-10 24.2 20.3 20.3
Cleveland 5-11 30.0 22.9 22.7
San Francisco 3-13 25.0 24.3 16.7
Carolina 2-14 34.4 20.4 28.5
Buffalo 1-15 37.1 28.0 20.2