It is probably no surprise that the AFC is stronger, but with 7 of the best 10 records (10-6 and above), one of those 10-6 AFC teams will be left out of the playoffs. Right now the computer says it will be Tennessee, but they are tied with Indianapolis at 10-6 and the nod goes to the Colts right now simply because they have a slightly better chance of finishing 10-6. Those two games in weeks 14 and 17 will have an awful lot of meaning.
The other AFC teams aren't a surprise either being Baltimore and Pittsburgh also tied but both making it at 13-3, the Jets, Kansas City, and New England. After the Titans at 10-6 things drop off to a group of 8-8 teams, the dangerous one there being San Diego.
In the NFC it could be a lot more competitive with 11 teams a 7-9 or better and an 8-8 team making it. Right now the teams would be Atlanta, Chicago, the Giants, and Arizona, with Tampa Bay and Green Bay the wildcards.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Baltimore | 13-3 | 33.5 | 23.0 | 24.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 13-3 | 31.8 | 22.8 | 24.0 |
| NY Jets | 13-3 | 29.6 | 15.5 | 28.8 |
| Atlanta | 12-4 | 27.5 | 20.8 | 22.8 |
| Kansas City | 12-4 | 26.3 | 18.7 | 23.7 |
| New England | 11-5 | 23.9 | 17.2 | 22.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 10-6 | 25.6 | 22.2 | 19.8 |
| Indianapolis | 10-6 | 25.4 | 22.1 | 19.8 |
| Chicago | 10-6 | 24.9 | 24.2 | 17.1 |
| Tennessee | 10-6 | 24.3 | 17.8 | 22.7 |
| Green Bay | 9-7 | 26.3 | 25.4 | 17.4 |
| NY Giants | 9-7 | 24.0 | 20.8 | 19.6 |
| Arizona | 8-8 | 24.3 | 22.2 | 18.4 |
| Denver | 8-8 | 24.1 | 17.1 | 23.2 |
| Jacksonville | 8-8 | 24.1 | 17.2 | 23.2 |
| Philadelphia | 8-8 | 24.0 | 21.7 | 18.6 |
| Washington | 8-8 | 23.9 | 17.1 | 23.2 |
| San Diego | 8-8 | 23.8 | 16.9 | 23.2 |
| Cincinnati | 7-9 | 32.3 | 20.5 | 25.9 |
| Miami | 7-9 | 25.3 | 18.6 | 23.1 |
| Houston | 7-9 | 25.0 | 21.8 | 19.5 |
| St Louis | 7-9 | 23.9 | 23.1 | 17.0 |
| Seattle | 7-9 | 23.8 | 21.8 | 18.2 |
| Dallas | 7-9 | 23.7 | 18.4 | 21.6 |
| New Orleans | 6-10 | 29.2 | 25.3 | 19.5 |
| Oakland | 6-10 | 26.0 | 17.4 | 25.1 |
| Minnesota | 6-10 | 24.7 | 22.2 | 18.7 |
| Detroit | 6-10 | 24.2 | 20.3 | 20.3 |
| Cleveland | 5-11 | 30.0 | 22.9 | 22.7 |
| San Francisco | 3-13 | 25.0 | 24.3 | 16.7 |
| Carolina | 2-14 | 34.4 | 20.4 | 28.5 |
| Buffalo | 1-15 | 37.1 | 28.0 | 20.2 |
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