Sunday, October 10, 2010

2010 Week 6 College Football Projections; Nebraska, TCU, Oregon, tOSU undefeated

Here are the projected records for the regular season using results through week 6 of the season.  Full projections on the site.

And then there were 13.  We all know who the top undefeated teams are, and my computer has six of them in the top-6 of the rankings, but there are 7 more behind them going all the way back to #29 Oklahoma State.  But who will remain undefeated?

The current projections say only four teams will, Nebraska, TCU, Oregon, and Ohio State.  What happens to the other nine?  Here is the breakdown for all 13.

First the four projected to finish that way.

Nebraska
12 wins - 57%
11 wins - 34%
10 wins - 8%
9 wins - 1%

TCU
12 - 54%
11 - 43%
10 - 2%

Oregon
12 - 48%
11 - 40%
10 - 11%
9 - 1%

Ohio State
12 - 47%
11 - 46%
10 - 6%

All have a good to very good chance of completing the season with no losses, but single loss is still possible and for Ohio State and Oregon, some number of losses is still more likely than undefeated.

What about the others?

Boise State
12 - 37%
11 - 50%
10 - 12%
9 - 1%

Nevada
13 - 38%
12 - 48%
11 - 13%
10 - 1%

Boise State and Nevada have to play each other which accounts for a lot of why each team may end up with one loss.  But whoever wins that game will most likely finish a perfect season.

Oklahoma
12 - 9%
11 - 30%
10 - 35%
9 - 19%
8 - 5%

Oklahoma still has Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State plus other games that aren't gimmies.

Missouri
12 - 2%
11 - 26%
10 - 40%
9 - 24%
8 - 6%

Missouri has A&M, Oklahoma, and Nebraska still to play.

Utah
12 - 9%
11 - 29%
10 - 36%
9 - 20%
8 - 5%

Utah must play TCU, Notre Dame, and Air Force.

LSU
12 - 14%
11 - 39%
10 - 35%
9 - 11%

LSU still has Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Michigan State
12 - 19%
11 - 63%
10 - 16%
9 - 1%

MSU has Iowa as the main competition with no tOSU on the schedule, but also closes with PSU.

Auburn
12 - 6%
11 - 32%
10 - 40%
9 - 18%
8 - 3%

Auburn has Arkansas LSU, and Alabama.

Oklahoma State
12 - 1%
11 - 6%
10 - 20%
9 - 33%
8 - 27%
7 - 12%
6 - 2%

OSU must still play Texas Tech, Nebraska, K-State, Texas, and Oklahoma.  There's a tough closing schedule.

What do you think?  Make a comment.