Thursday, September 9, 2010

And the 2011 Super Bowl Winner Is?

I posted the projected records for the 2010/2011 NFL season earlier, so the next natural step is to use those selected playoff teams to pick the playoff games and determine the chances of each team winning the Super Bowl.  So I went about doing so using my computer's end of last season ratings.

As projected, the seeds in the AFC would be San Diego, Indy, the Jets, Baltimore, New England, and Houston.  In the NFC they would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay, and Carolina. These are picked based on each teams most likely record given their upcoming schedule.

Plugging those teams in to a playoff bracket, the chances of each team getting to and winning the Super Bowl are then:

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
New Orleans0.4760.287
San Diego0.3480.153
Indianapolis0.3060.142
Minnesota0.2690.141
NY Jets0.1360.062
Dallas0.1120.059
Baltimore0.0900.039
New England0.0850.039
Green Bay0.0630.031
Carolina0.0380.018
Arizona0.0410.017
Houston0.0350.013

As one might expect, using last years ratings where the Saints won it all, they are predicted to do so again even having to navigate a tougher schedule.  What is perhaps a surprise is that San Diego is listed as having the better chance to be their opponent than Indianapolis.

As always this early in the season, the ratings will change, the teams will not perform the same as last year, so the above is almost assured of being incorrect.  But it is still interesting to see and I'll post updates regularly.