Sunday, September 12, 2010

2010 Week 2 College Football Projections; Alabama now and Boise St still undefeated

With two games played, there is a little more data to base regular season projected records on, but it is still very early.  However, that doesn't stop me from seeing what my computer projects and here it is.

Last week, Boise State and TCU were projected to be undefeated, but that has changed to just Alabama and Boise State and Alabama at an astounding 60% chance.  BSU was at 59% and has now dropped to 44% after Virginia Tech's bad loss making that win less impressive.

TCU still has a good shot at going undefeated at 30% but with Air Force's impressive start, there is now a decent chance they lose a game to them or someone else.  Other teams projected to have 1 loss and thus a good chance at going undefeated are Oregon (24%), Ohio State (22%), Air Force (16% undefeated), Iowa (14%), and Florida (14%).  All of those teams have a better chance of having 2 losses than zero though.

For those interested in more details, here is what the computer says Alabama's chances are of 8 thru 12 wins:
  • 8 -  0.02%
  • 9 -  0.55%
  • 10 -  6.35%
  • 11 - 32.93%
  • 12 - 60.15%
    By comparison here is Florida:
    • 7 -  0.01%
    • 8 -  0.30%
    • 9 -  3.53%
    • 10 - 22.26%
    • 11 - 60.08%
    • 12 - 13.81%
    And Ohio State:
    • 7 -  0.01%
    • 8 -  0.38%
    • 9 -  4.68%
    • 10 - 24.62%
    • 11 - 48.66%
    • 12 - 21.65%
    Stay tuned for updates.

    Updated to fix clerical error causing slightly incorrect ratings