Saturday, September 4, 2010

2010 Week 1 College Football Thoughts; Big games for Utah, USC, LSU, TCU, Boise State, Virginia Tech

With a few games played but some interesting one still to be played, here are a few observations and thoughts.  While I mention rankings from my computer below, keep in mind that they are from last year and so how teams do will tell us a bit about how they compare to that ranking and where they should be this year.  Stay tuned for the updated rankings after Monday nights game.

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First, from Thursday, there were a few meaningful games.

The big one was Utah beating Pitt in overtime 27-24.  They were rated fairly close to end last season (Pitt #21 and Utah #27) so the computer had Utah winning by 1.3 being at home, so it got that right, but it was big for Utah's hopes of somehow sneaking into BCS consideration.  They have TCU, Notre Dame, and BYU on their schedule so should they win out they'd certainly be justified of being considered.

USC answered some questions about their offense, but their defense didn't look so good and they were unable to cover the 21 points winning by 13, but that is about what the computer predicted having them by 11.4.  So they'll likely stay about where they were which was #26.

Today so far, there haven't been any too terribly interesting games but Florida and Texas perhaps didn't win as convincingly as one would have thought.  The computer had Florida winning by 38 so their 22 point win will likely drop them a bit.  And the computer had Texas by 29 so 17 will likely drop them some too.

The late games today see LSU and UNC playing, the computer picking LSU by 4.8.  With LSU #9 coming in from last year, this could say a lot about their potential to contend this year.

Also playing tonight is Oregon State and TCU.  This is TCU's big non-conference game so there is pressure on them to perform as this could determine whether or not they vie for BCS consideration.  The computer likes TCU by about 10 so look for them to try to top that to impress voters.

And the big game of the week is Boise State traveling back east to take on Virginia Tech.  With both teams in the top-10 of the polls this year and #6 and #5 respectively from last years final computer ratings, this is a biggie.  The computer likes Virginia Tech by a smidge, but that is based on last years ratings of course and this will certainly determine the fate of both teams BCS hopes.