Sunday, September 26, 2010

2010 Week 4 College Football Projections; Nevada, TCU, and Stanford Undefeated

Now things get interesting!  With the shake-up in the rankings, the regular season projected records are a bit of a surprise.  Here is what my computer projects and below are the 1-loss and undefeated teams.

And there are 3 projected to finish undefeated and Alabama and Ohio State aren't any of them.  Rather it is BCS busters Nevada and TCU, and what appears to be a hot Stanford team.

Stanford will be tested right away visiting Oregon next week and has a pretty good chance of finishing with one loss (40%) so them finishing unblemished is certainly not a given.

Nevada on the other hand, like Boise State, is now entering the easy part of their schedule.  The only game on their schedule that should be a test is Boise State and that game is in Reno.  With convincing wins hosting Cal and at BYU, if they beat BSU they can make a decent case for getting into the BCS.

TCU's only real opponent on the schedule is at Utah so they too are looking good.

There are a host of teams projected to have 1 loss that have a decent chance at an undefeated season, those being tOSU (44% up from 36%), Alabama (35%), NC State (30%), Boise State (21%), and Florida (8%).

It is a bit of a surprise to see NC State with such a good chance, but after next week's game hosting VaTech (#20), their only game against a team ranked higher than #45 is at Clemson (#21) so they have a chance.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Nevada 13-0 62.9 0.0 32.9
TCU 12-0 69.1 0.0 28.7
Stanford 12-0 50.0 0.0 39.9
Temple 11-1 63.0 0.0 31.1
Boise St 11-1 56.1 18.1 22.1
Ohio State 11-1 45.9 43.5 9.9
Alabama 11-1 45.8 34.9 16.8
North Carolina St 11-1 45.0 30.1 20.4
Florida 11-1 42.3 8.3 36.1