Friday, September 3, 2010

And the 2010 College Football Season Begins

The division I-A, ok FBS, season began last night with several games and gets into full swing this weekend.  My computer simply uses last years end of season ratings to start the year which isn't perfect, but it is better than treating all teams the same to start the year.  That means that Alabama starts the year a clear #1 over Florida.

Because I use last years ratings to start, I generally don't expect the computer to pick games very well the first few weeks and thus don't count those, but I've still posted predictions for this weekends games.

But what is perhaps more interesting is seeing what the computer projects for end of season records.  This is basically saying what record each team should end up with if they play to last years performance against this years schedule.  The full list can be found here, but two teams are projected to finish undefeated, TCU and Alabama, with Boise State, Texas, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Florida are projected to finish with 1 loss.  However, the winner of the Boise State / Va Tech game this weekend could be projected to be undefeated too.

For comparison, after 1 week last year, the projections for the regular season were:

  • Boise State 13-0 (finished 13-0)
  • Florida 12-0 (12-0)
  • Penn State 11-1 (10-2)
  • Alabama 11-1 (12-0)
  • Cincinnati 11-1 (12-0)
  • USC 11-1 (8-3)
Other than USC, nearly spot on.

In any case, stay tuned for more here and updates on the web-site.