Sunday, September 19, 2010

2010 Week 3 College Football Rankings and Review; Alabama #1, Oregon #2, Stanford #3

With most teams now having played three games, we are beginning to get a clearer picture of where the teams stand.  The pre-season (end of last year) rating is now less than 25% of the rating and goes to almost zero after 4 games, so we now see what a teams performance from this year results in.

The full rankings are on the web-site, but the top-30 is below for quick reference.

Alabama stays #1 and again recovers some of the points they lost from playing a weak opponent week 1 and has a sizable lead over new #2 Oregon and #3 Stanford.  Stanford and #4 Nebraska made big moves  after their dominating wins against BCS non-conference foes.

Arizona also makes a strong move after their statement win over Iowa, but the big move of the week is Nevada leaping to #15 after easily taking care of California.  Oklahoma State also makes a big move to #21.

Air Force, the surprise mover up of last week played better than Vegas thought, but still lost, and drops 9 spots.  Texas A&M drops 12 spots as does Oregon State after winning by less than expected at home against a not so great opponents.  But Cal is the big loser dropping 24 spots all the way to #37 after their loss to Nevada.

The BCS buster watch has TCU falling to #6 and Boise State to #9 after good wins, but they were just passed by teams having more dominating wins over stronger opponents.  Boise State is definitely helped by Nevada's win as that likely gives them another quality opponent late in the year and it will be on the road.  But Oregon State may not be as strong as they hoped.  Interestingly, Oregon State will be a common opponent for Boise State, TCU, Stanford, and Oregon, all teams presently in the top-9!

Picking games, the computer went 30-24 against the spread and 44-10 picking winners while Vegas went 42-12 picking winners.  Not bad considering the computer is just getting going.  Full prediction performance here.

Look for predictions and preview of the upcoming week here and on the web-site.

1Alabama93.1853-066.898+0, +0.990
2Oregon88.6003-057.658+1, +2.542
3Stanford87.3543-065.772+7, +6.117
4Nebraska86.4593-061.628+10, +6.951
5Florida85.8143-065.709-3, -2.377
6TCU84.5223-063.381-2, +0.313
7LSU83.9203-071.123+2, +2.423
8Texas82.9893-064.904+4, +2.790
9Boise St82.9302-071.606-1, +1.240
10Ohio State82.8383-062.960-4, -0.391
11Arizona82.6183-064.799+5, +3.409
12Oklahoma81.3643-069.804-1, +1.062
13Iowa80.5232-161.643-6, -2.358
14Air Force80.5062-160.086-9, -3.564
15Nevada80.4433-057.886+27, +7.972
16Arkansas80.3753-060.565+2, +2.021
17South Carolina79.9983-064.737-2, +0.547
18Virginia Tech78.4081-273.945+4, +1.236
19Penn State78.0282-169.879+5, +1.203
20Auburn76.3583-067.095+1, -0.835
21Oklahoma St76.3253-060.131+22, +4.449
22Pittsburgh76.2431-166.564-5, -2.319
23Utah76.0753-060.834-3, -1.559
24Fresno St75.4152-066.319+8, +1.518
25North Carolina St75.2253-061.236+11, +1.846
26Miami FL75.1271-165.108+1, -0.092
27Southern Cal75.0283-065.982+1, -0.138
28Clemson74.7752-154.693+11, +1.891
29Florida St74.1322-164.260+27, +4.404
30Texas Tech74.1202-167.484-7, -2.817