Monday, September 13, 2010

2010 Week 1 NFL Thoughts and Analysis

Most of the games have been played in week 1, so it is time for some thoughts about how the week shaped up.  The computer isn't expected to be predicting that well at this point, after all teams have changed, but comparing how the games went to the predicted can tell us which teams are better or worse than last year.

Minnesota and New Orleans played to right about what the computer expected (5.6 points vs 5) so in this game at least, the teams played pretty much to last seasons performance.  One might have expected the Saints to do a bit better considering the turmoil and missing players for Minnesota.

Miami winning at Buffalo was not expected by the computer so there is likely some combination of Miami improving and Buffalo declining.  Perhaps TO did help the Bills last year.

The computer picked Tennessee to cover and they sure did over Oakland.  The Titans certainly benefited from having Vince Young to start this season where he didn't start last season, but it is probably also taking a little time for the new pieces to gel in Oakland.

It also appears Cincinnati may take a little time for the new pieces to come together, losing by more than expected to New England.  They did play better in the second half so perhaps that is already happening, but the Patriots could just be better too.

The computer liked Carolina but the Giants came out strong.  The Panthers are likely weaker at QB than last year and perhaps there was some extra oomph in the Giants game in the new stadium opener.

The computer liked Pittsburgh and they came through in OT.  Perhaps things won't be as bad as thought the first few weeks.

This game went about as expected (Bucs by 4.6, won by 3), but does anyone outside the respective cities care?

Denver does not appear primed to repeat their fast start of last year after an unexpected drubbing by Jacksonville.  Did the Jags improve or are there larger issues in Denver?

Houston appears for real after pulling the upset and winning by more than Vegas picked them by.  They could give the Colts a run.

Chicago pulled out the win but by less than the computer expected.  Is Detroit on the rise or is a Cutler led team still a bit volatile?

The Pete Carroll era in Seattle started with a bang and the touted 49ers played well below expectations.  First game adrenaline for the Seahawks or does this continue all season?

The computer liked Philly but without McNabb and subsequently Kolb, they didn't perform up to last years rating while Green Bay got the win.

Arizona won, but by less than expected over the Rams.  That could be an indication the Cardinals aren't as good without Wariner and that Bradford has promise.

Dallas didn't look good, losing by 6 when picked to win by 5.8.  They'll need to recover quickly, and are the Redskins for real?

Tonight, the Jets are a 3.7 point pick and The Chargers 6.4.  Lets see what those games tell us about what we might expect from them this year.