Alabama's stay at #1 ends, replaced by a Stanford team that has looked impressive, and Ohio State passes them too at #2 dropping Alabama to #3. Why is this? It is a combination of several factors including:
- Alabama won by less than expected against Arkansas (4 vs 10)
- Alabama past opponent Duke lost to Army when the computer expected them to win
- Alabama past opponent San Jose State was thumped by Utah 56-3
- Alabama's pre-season rating (far and away #1) is less than 10% of their current rating, it was around 25% last week
- Stanford thumped Notre Dame by more than expected
- Stanford past opponent UCLA thumped Texas on the road when expected to lose
- Stanford's pre-season rating (#23) is no longer holding them down as much
- Ohio State prior opponent Miami won big at Pittsburgh
You can see how important Stanford's win over UCLA and Ohio State's win over Miami are at this point of the season. As more meaningful games are added and as those team rise or fall, things could change. You can also see that Alabama is rated where they were after week 1, the other teams have just passed them by primarily due to their week 2 opponents improving.
Performance charts for all teams are available as part of a newsletter subscription.
Behind the top 3 is Nevada (helped by Cal losing by only 1) and Oregon was #2 last week but fell a few spots after a closer than expected win.
The BCS buster watch begins at #6 where TCU stays and Boise State actually falls from #9 to #12 after a less than stellar win. BSU is helped by Nevada being highly rated at this point so a win over them (if they stay highly rated) will count nicely, but they have some ground to make up to just catch TCU.
Picking games, the computer stunk (as is often the case one of the first four weeks and this was that week) going 24-34 against the spread and 46-12 picking winners while Vegas went 51-7 picking winners. The computer is still 103-90-1 against the spread for the year though. Full prediction performance here.
Look for season projections and preview of the upcoming week here and on the web-site.
|2||Ohio State||88.079||4-0||63.221||+8, +5.241|
|11||Miami FL||83.499||2-1||67.545||+15, +8.372|
|12||Boise St||82.620||3-0||70.586||-3, -0.309|
|14||North Carolina St||80.961||4-0||64.397||+11, +5.747|
|18||Kansas St||79.048||4-0||69.427||+15, +5.371|
|20||Virginia Tech||78.393||2-2||72.276||-2, -0.015|
|23||South Carolina||76.811||3-1||66.697||-6, -3.187|
|24||Penn State||76.496||3-1||67.870||-5, -1.533|
|26||Oklahoma St||76.381||3-0||60.022||-5, +0.056|
|28||Air Force||75.630||3-1||58.969||-14, -4.876|