Sunday, January 1, 2012

Who the computer says will win the 2012 Superbowl

With the end of the regular season, the final ratings are posted and the computer can calculate the chances of each playoff contender getting to and winning the Superbowl.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
Green Bay0.5610.350
New England0.5280.254
San Francisco0.2290.118
Baltimore0.2690.105
New Orleans0.1270.069
Pittsburgh0.0910.036
Houston0.0770.025
Atlanta0.0280.011
NY Giants0.0280.010
Detroit0.0240.010
Denver0.0190.004
Cincinnati0.0180.004

Not only does the computer say Green Bay and New England are favorites in their conference, it puts their chances of getting to the Superbowl at both over 50%.  This is in large part due to having first round byes and home field advantage through the playoffs.  The Packers even have a 35% chance of winning it all to just over 25% for the Patriots.

As you'd expect, the other teams with first round byes are the second choices in each conference, Baltimore having a nearly 27% chance of getting to the Superbowl and the 49ers, almost 23%.  Interestingly, because of the potential matchups in the Superbowl, the 49ers have a better chance of winning it all than Baltimore.

Who has the longest shot?  While Denver is the lowest rated team in the playoffs, because they get a home game, albeit against Pittsburgh, they beat out Cincinnati, both with less than a 1% chance of winning the Superbowl and under a 2% chance of getting there.