Who the computer says will win the 2012 Superbowl

With the end of the regular season, the final ratings are posted and the computer can calculate the chances of each playoff contender getting to and winning the Superbowl.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Green Bay	0.561	0.350
New England	0.528	0.254
San Francisco	0.229	0.118
Baltimore	0.269	0.105
New Orleans	0.127	0.069
Pittsburgh	0.091	0.036
Houston	0.077	0.025
Atlanta	0.028	0.011
NY Giants	0.028	0.010
Detroit	0.024	0.010
Denver	0.019	0.004
Cincinnati	0.018	0.004

Not only does the computer say Green Bay and New England are favorites in their conference, it puts their chances of getting to the Superbowl at both over 50%.  This is in large part due to having first round byes and home field advantage through the playoffs.  The Packers even have a 35% chance of winning it all to just over 25% for the Patriots.

As you'd expect, the other teams with first round byes are the second choices in each conference, Baltimore having a nearly 27% chance of getting to the Superbowl and the 49ers, almost 23%.  Interestingly, because of the potential matchups in the Superbowl, the 49ers have a better chance of winning it all than Baltimore.

Who has the longest shot?  While Denver is the lowest rated team in the playoffs, because they get a home game, albeit against Pittsburgh, they beat out Cincinnati, both with less than a 1% chance of winning the Superbowl and under a 2% chance of getting there.