Friday, January 6, 2012

Cincinnati at Houston 2012 Playoff Preview - Houston to win and cover

Houston plays at Cincinnati on 1/7 in a wildcard playoff game.

Houston is ranked #10 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 83.207 against a schedule strength of 80.183. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good most of the season, but finished on a downer, their worst game being against Carolina and best game being at Tennessee. They are 10-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



Cincinnati is ranked #14 by the computer with a 9-7 record and a rating of 81.977 against a schedule strength of 80.875. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, not as up in the second half of the season, their worst game being at Pittsburgh and best game being at Seattle. They are 9-6-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



The teams played 4 weeks ago Houston winning 20-19 on the road, are separated by 2 degrees:

2 Houston-->Baltimore-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Baltimore-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Cincinnati

The spread is Houston by 3 and the computer agrees picking them by 4.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xHouston -3.0 over . Cincinnati 4.2 1.2 0.638 0.541

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.