Friday, January 6, 2012

Detroit at New Orleans 2012 Playoff Preview - New Orleans to win, Detroit to cover

New Orleans plays at Detroit on 1/7 in a wildcard playoff game.

New Orleans is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 88.518 against a schedule strength of 80.212. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down early but finished very strong, their worst game being at St Louis and best game being against Atlanta. They are 12-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-11 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.



Detroit is ranked #7 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 84.577 against a schedule strength of 82.269. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite up and down but finished on an upward trend, their worst game being at Chicago and best game being against San Diego. They are 8-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 11-5 picking their games against the spread and 11-5 picking winners in their games.



The teams played 5 weeks ago the Saints winning 31-17 at home and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Chicago-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Chicago-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Green_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Green_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Minnesota-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Minnesota-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Detroit

The spread is New Orleans by 10.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 6.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Detroit +10.5 over *x New Orleans 6.9 3.6 0.670 0.589

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.