Sunday, January 1, 2012

2012 Allstate Sugar Bowl Preview - Michigan to beat Virginia Tech and cover

The Allstate Sugar Bowl will take place on 1/3 pitting Michigan against Virginia Tech. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Michigan is ranked #12 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 79.554 against a schedule strength of 68.533. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good except in their two losses, their worst game being at Iowa and best game being against Nebraska. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



Virginia Tech is ranked #29 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 74.038 against a schedule strength of 66.898. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also pretty good except for their losses, their worst game being against Clemson and best game being at Virginia. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 7-2 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Michigan-->Illinois-->Arkansas_St-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Northwestern-->Boston_College-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Notre_Dame-->Boston_College-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Notre_Dame-->Wake_Forest-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Ohio_State-->Miami_FL-->Virginia_Tech


The spread is Michigan by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by 5.5. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Michigan -2.0 over .. Virginia Tech 5.5 3.5 0.685 0.620

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.