Saturday, January 14, 2012

New York Giants at Green Bay 2012 Playoff Preview - Green Bay to win and cover

New York plays at Green Bay on 1/15 in a divisional playoff game.

New York is ranked #9 by the computer with a 10-7 record and a rating of 83.809 against a schedule strength of 82.357. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being against Atlanta. They are 9-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-8-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-10 picking winners in their games.



Green Bay is ranked #1 by the computer with a 15-1 record and a rating of 90.415 against a schedule strength of 80.833. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were far more consistent save a couple down games late in the season, their worst game being at Kansas City and best game being at Detroit. They are 11-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 15-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head and are separated by 2 degrees through as follows:


1 NY_Giants-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->Green_Bay


The spread is Green Bay by 7.5 and the computer says it should be more, picking them by 9.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:


*xGreen_Bay             -7.5 over  .            NY_Giants  9.6  2.1 0.803 0.574


But let's dig deeper.

The Giants are clearly not a consistent team.  If they play like their last 3, they are playing quite well.  Their average rating over that span is an impressive 95.8.  And their average in their best 5 games is an even more impressive 96.3.  However, at their worst, they are pretty bad, their worst 5 averaging 69.7.

New Orleans cannot boast such highs or lows.  Their worst 5 average 83.5 and their best 5 average 95.8.  Their last 3 average just 85.0.

So should the average of both teams show up, the computer's pick looks solid.  But based on the best of both teams, the game should be very close, and if the season ending trends hold up, you have to like the Giants.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.