Saturday, January 21, 2012

Giants at San Francisco 2012 Playoff Preview - San Francisco to win and cover, except ...

The Giants plays at San Francisco on 1/22 in the NFC championship.

New York is ranked #6 by the computer with a 11-7 record and a rating of 85.342 against a schedule strength of 83.010. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but are up now, their worst game being against Washington and best game being last week at Green Bay. They are 10-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-11 picking winners in their games.



San Francisco is ranked #4 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 87.689 against a schedule strength of 80.824. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, their worst game being against Dallas and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 13-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams played earlier in the year the 49ers winning 27-20 at home and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco


The spread is San Francisco by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by over 5.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xSan Francisco -2.0 over . NY Giants 5.3 3.3 0.677 0.613

But, let's dig deeper.

While San Francisco has been pretty consistent, the Giants have been all over the place, but very good lately.  In their last 4, the Giants average rating is a whopping 97.9 which is better than the 49ers best game hosting Pittsburgh (97.6) and well ahead of the 49ers 87.7 rating and even the average of their best 4 games (94.1).

So if the Giants play at that level, the game would actually be a Giants pick against anything other than the 49ers single best game.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.