Sunday, January 1, 2012

2012 Discover Orange Bowl Preview - Clemson to win, West Virginia to cover

The Discover Orange Bowl will take place on 1/4 pitting West Virginia against Clemson. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

West Virginia is ranked #35 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 72.362 against a schedule strength of 67.263. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good and consistent except for their game against Syracuse, their worst game being at Syracuse and best game being at Rutgers. They are 6-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 4-5 picking winners in their games.



Clemson is ranked #26 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 74.284 against a schedule strength of 68.007. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly up and down, their worst game being at North Carolina State and best game being against Virginia Tech. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 7-2 picking their games against the spread and 4-5 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Maryland and 3 degrees as follows:


2 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->LSU-->Auburn-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Marshall-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Marshall-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Boston_College-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Florida_St-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Georgia_Tech-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->North_Carolina_St-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Wake_Forest-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Rutgers-->North_Carolina-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Syracuse-->Wake_Forest-->Clemson


Against Maryland, West Virginia won 37-31 on the road and Clemson won 56-45 on the road.

The spread is Clemson by 3.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.West Virginia +3.5 over *. Clemson 1.9 1.6 0.572 0.559

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.