Sunday, January 8, 2012

2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl Preview - Northern Illinois in the upset

The GoDaddy.com Bowl will take place on 1/8 pitting Arkansas State against Northern Illinois. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Arkansas State is ranked #61 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 67.654 against a schedule strength of 57.868. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent with gradual improvement, their worst game being at Illinois and best game being against Florida Int'l. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 8-0 picking winners in their games.



Northern Illinois is ranked #51 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 69.414 against a schedule strength of 63.150. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Central Michigan and best game being against Western Michigan. They are 1-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Arkansas_St-->Illinois-->Western_Michigan-->Northern_Illinois
3 Arkansas_St-->Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Northern_Illinois
3 Arkansas_St-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Kent_St-->Northern_Illinois


The spread is Arkansas State by 1 and the computer disagrees picking Northern Illinois by 1.8. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Northern Illinois +1.0 over . Arkansas State 1.8 2.8 0.574 0.615

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.