Tuesday, January 3, 2012

College Football Week 19 Preview Ratings and Rankings

I normally post updated college football ratings each Sunday to include all the games through the previous day, and I posted the week 18 ratings a few days ago, but with a bunch of key bowl games played yesterday I updated the rating through the Fiesta Bowl and the top-25 is below.

It is interesting to see some of the changes after the New Years Day, errr January 2nd, games.  There are no changes in position until #8, but then there is a fair amount.

Stanford moves up a spot despite losing, in large part because they were expected to lose so their rating was about where it was supposed to be.  They move up a spot because Wisconsin and the rest of the Big Ten had a bad day.  Wisconsin lost, but they were supposed to so that isn't why they dropped, instead it was the rest of the Big Ten teams except for Michigan State losing, and badly in a few cases, that pulled Wisconsin and the rest of the Big Ten down a bit with Michigan dropped 0.5 points and 3 spots despite not playing yet, Michigan State dropping 0.1 points and a spot despite winning, Nebraska dropping 1.4 points and 3 spots in a bad loss, and Penn State (not in the top-25) dropping 1.6 points and 6 spots after their bad loss.

The beneficiary in large part was the SEC, even the idle teams having their ratings improve 0.3+ points, but esepcially South Carolina, as well as Oregon and Houston, although Oregon's gap to #3 Oklahoma State was too large for it to change their ranking.

How close is Oklahoma State to #2 now?  Still not very close, their loss to Iowa State just a far worse result than Alabama's loss to LSU.

1LSU96.19713-072.703+0, +0.361
2Alabama92.43211-171.615+0, +0.298
3Oklahoma St87.90012-173.629+0, +0.124
4Oregon85.71412-270.454+0, +0.601
5Arkansas84.47510-271.429+0, +0.549
6Boise St83.92712-165.714+0, +0.012
7Oklahoma83.58210-373.636+0, +0.039
8Stanford82.31711-269.974+1, +0.074
9Wisconsin81.91311-367.580-1, -1.098
10South Carolina80.73511-270.854+3, +1.469
11Southern Cal79.66410-270.207+0, +0.100
12Georgia79.57410-471.905-2, -0.175
13Baylor79.14010-372.039+1, +0.053
14Texas A&M79.1087-673.042+1, +0.060
15Michigan79.04310-268.063-3, -0.505
16Missouri78.2038-571.770+0, +0.054
17Houston78.00813-162.283+4, +1.639
18Michigan St77.85511-368.496-1, -0.140
19TCU77.58911-264.310-1, +0.080
20Kansas St77.52410-271.813-1, +0.040
21Florida St76.4859-465.798+2, +0.176
22Texas76.4848-573.335-2, +0.061
23Notre Dame75.7668-570.822+1, -0.011
24Southern Miss74.96212-262.857+1, +0.433
25Nebraska74.8879-470.317-3, -1.429