Tuesday, January 3, 2012

2012 AT&T Cotton Bowl Preview - Arkansas to win and Kansas State to cover

The AT&T Cotton Bowl will take place on 1/6 pitting Kansas State against Arkansas. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Kansas State is ranked #19 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 77.484 against a schedule strength of 71.788. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent except for 2 games, their worst game being against Eastern Kentucky and best game being at Oklahoma State. They are 6-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-4 picking winners in their games.



Arkansas is ranked #5 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 83.926 against a schedule strength of 71.100. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very good with just a few down games, their worst game being against Troy and best game being against Tennessee. They are 4-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Texas A&M and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Kansas_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Baylor-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Eastern_Kentucky-->Missouri_St-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Iowa_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Kansas-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Kent_St-->Alabama-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Missouri-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Oklahoma_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Oklahoma-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas_Tech-->New_Mexico-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas_Tech-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas

Against Texas A&M, Kansas State won 53-50 at home and Arkansas won 42-38 on the road.

The spread is Arkansas by 7.5 and the computer agrees but by less, picking them by 6.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Kansas State +7.5 over *. Arkansas 6.4 1.1 0.726 0.539

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.