Sunday, January 8, 2012

Denver at New England 2012 Playoffs Preview - Patriots to win, Denver to cover

Denver plays at New England on 1/14 in a divisional playoff game.

Denver is ranked #20 by the computer with a 9-8 record and a rating of 80.239 against a schedule strength of 81.942. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were down early, then up mostly with Tebow, but struggled to finish the regular season, their worst game being at Buffalo and best game being at Oakland. They are 9-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 13-4 picking their games against the spread and 9-8 picking winners in their games.



New England is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 88.744 against a schedule strength of 80.837. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they did have a few ups and downs, their worst game being against the Giants and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 9-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-10 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams played earlier in the year, New England wining, and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 Denver-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 Denver-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->New_England
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->New_England
2 Denver-->Miami-->New_England
2 Denver-->Miami-->New_England
2 Denver-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Denver-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Denver-->Oakland-->New_England
2 Denver-->Oakland-->New_England
2 Denver-->San_Diego-->New_England
2 Denver-->San_Diego-->New_England


The spread is New England by 14 and the computer agrees but by not quite that much picking the Patriots by 11.5. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Denver +14.0 over *x New England 11.5 2.5 0.824 0.580

But again, digging deeper.  It seems like one of two Denver teams shows up with Tebow.  In the 8 wins over their last 12, the average rating is 87.7 with a high of 93.4.  Over those 12, on the road they average 84.7 and at home just 78.2.  In the 3 road wins the average is 85.5.

New England was down a bit with their back to back losses, but in the 8 games since has averaged 91.5.  Interestingly, they've done better on the road with a 95.1 average vs 88.0 at home.

Based on this, if the good Denver shows up (87.7) and the late season home Patriots show up (88.0), the game could be close.  It would be hard to outright pick and upset though.  14 points is certainly attractive though unless you think the bad Denver is going to show up (70.9).

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.