Sunday, November 14, 2010

What would my computer say if it was handcuffed like the BCS computers are?

I enjoy taking shots at some of the BCS computers and the strange rankings they have (Billingsley has Oregon #5, really?  And Stanford #13? And TCU #1?  And he still had Utah #7?), but to be fair, the BCS computers are handcuffed by not being able to include margin of victory in their calculations.

Just for fun, I've toyed with an algorithm that is similarly handcuffed and I believe it has more reasonable results than some of the BCS computers.  Here is my BCS algorithms top-25.

Oregon is still #1 but Auburn does move up to #2.  TCU and Boise St are down a bit due to their weaker schedules.  I still have Stanford rated highly and oddly Missouri even with 2 losses is #8.  So, I like my BCS algorithm better than most of the others, but I still think it is flawed and that is because MOV can't be taken into account.

Now, MOV has to be taken into account appropriately, using diminishing returns and tailoring it so that a team neither benefits from running up the score but also doesn't get dinged if they don't.  That is exactly what my normal algorithm does, resulting in I believe a better set of ratings and rankings.

What do you think?  Leave a comment.

1Oregon86.99010-074.752+1, +0.096
2Auburn86.76611-073.177-1, -0.776
3Stanford85.0329-176.348+3, -0.318
4LSU84.6889-174.984+1, -0.925
5Nebraska84.3339-174.337-2, -1.665
6TCU84.30411-072.574-2, -1.579
7Oklahoma St84.2879-174.815+0, -0.814
8Missouri83.1788-276.426+1, -0.097
9Boise St82.9129-072.304-1, -1.124
10Alabama82.3958-276.129+6, +0.442
11Michigan St82.3209-172.096+0, -0.740
12Oklahoma82.1648-275.701+2, +0.012
13Wisconsin82.0709-171.480-3, -1.102
14Arkansas81.6628-273.948+3, -0.058
15Ohio State81.3419-171.545+3, +0.039
16Texas A&M81.2497-376.395+5, +0.583
17Southern Cal81.1207-377.134+7, +1.085
18Arizona80.3317-375.080-6, -2.592
19Nevada79.9558-171.857+3, -0.405
20South Carolina79.9077-375.429+10, +1.188
21Iowa79.4357-374.048-8, -3.086
22Mississippi St79.3297-373.881-2, -1.636
23Kansas St79.2096-476.460-4, -2.088
24Virginia Tech78.8578-271.953+10, +0.789
25Utah78.7158-272.537-10, -3.357