Sunday, November 14, 2010

2010 Week 11 College Football Ratings and Rankings; Oregon #1, Stanford #2, Boise St #3, TCU #4, Auburn #5

After what I called Separation Saturday last week, the 4 top teams all found a way to come back to the pack, each in their own way.  The top-4 are still in the top-4, but other than Oregon remaining at #1, teams have moved around.  And behind the top-4, several teams are making moves and getting closer.

Oregon struggled in beating California and their rating falls over 3 points, but they had such a cushion coming in that they are still #1 by a wide margin.  Of course, they were helped by last weeks #2, TCU, struggling themselves but also being hurt by Utah's collapse and Oregon State's poor showing as they fell an astounding 6.1 points and fell to #4.

Stanford and Boise State, last weeks #3 and #4 respectively, had their own issues, Stanford just getting by ASU and Boise being hurt by Oregon State's loss too, and lost ratings points, but due to TCU's fall move up to #2 and #3.

Behind them, Auburn finally gets into the top-5, and is within striking distance of #2 Stanford (less than 2 points) but Alabama, their opponent in 2 weeks, is right behind at #6 and at this point, the computer would pick Alabama to win that game since it is in Tuscaloosa.

Why isn't Auburn higher?  Let's remember that while they won by 18, it was at home and against a now 5-6 Georgia that lost to a 4-6 Colorado.  Additionally, while Oregon, TCU, and Stanford just had close games, Auburn had three wins each by just three points earlier this year against a 7-3 Mississippi State but more importantly against a 5-5 Clemson and 6-5 Kentucky.  When one looks at the entire season to this point, the teams ahead of them have had stronger results.

The SEC is represented very well, with the 5, 6, 7, 12, and 13th ranked teams, but the Pac-10 is as well with the 1, 2, 11, 23, and 25th ranked teams.  And the Big-12 also has 5 teams in the top-25 with 9, 10, 15, 16, and 19.

The computer eked out a winning record going 29-26-1, and the locks went 3-2.  See the prediction performance for more details.

Here is the top-30.  See the web-site for the full list.

1Oregon90.62810-068.083+0, -3.042
2Stanford84.1239-171.460+1, -1.505
3Boise St83.5629-062.683+1, -1.310
4TCU83.52411-062.552-2, -6.140
5Auburn82.19311-067.178+1, +1.297
6Alabama81.9188-269.562+2, +1.585
7Arkansas80.1178-266.520+5, +1.114
8Ohio State80.0799-162.612+2, +0.238
9Oklahoma St79.6699-166.402+0, -0.247
10Nebraska79.5299-165.364-5, -2.004
11Southern Cal78.5677-372.756+3, +0.496
12South Carolina78.5307-370.096+13, +3.297
13LSU78.1939-167.506+4, +0.208
14Wisconsin77.7119-162.425+4, -0.268
15Missouri77.5558-268.163+1, -0.440
16Texas A&M77.5397-368.312+5, +1.103
17Iowa77.0847-364.852-10, -3.739
18Virginia Tech77.0568-264.568+6, +1.610
19Oklahoma76.9058-267.981+1, +0.253
20Arizona76.6287-368.602-9, -2.408
21Nevada76.3869-162.055-2, -0.912
22Michigan St75.7589-163.931+0, -0.612
23Arizona St75.5374-672.056+0, -0.604
24Miami FL75.2357-367.032+4, +0.725
25California75.2045-572.397+1, -0.015
26Florida St73.9217-366.048+3, -0.428
27Florida73.8316-469.392+0, -1.201
28North Carolina St73.3487-364.381+6, +0.065
29Mississippi St73.2357-366.238+1, -1.019
30Georgia72.9275-667.353+6, +0.267