Sunday, November 7, 2010

2010 Week 10 College Football Projections; Oregon, TCU, and Boise State undefeated

Here are the projected records for the regular season using results through week 10 of the season.  Full projections on the site.

And then there were four.  There were three teams projected to finish undefeated last week and there still are.  Who doesn't make it?  The computer still says Auburn will lose a game, most likely against Alabama.

TCU is now nearly a lock to finish with a perfect record with just San Diego State and New Mexico left on their schedule.  How much will those weak opponents hurt them with the computers?  Boise State's lone chance to slip up will be at Nevada.  Oregon does have some good opponents to play in Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State, but has been so dominant that they are at nearly an 80% chance of finishing undefeated.

Should one of the three stumble, there are a host of 1-loss teams right there, 7 predicted to finish that way.  Here all those teams are.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TCU12-099.70.00.3
Oregon12-078.70.019.8
Boise St12-061.10.036.3
Wisconsin11-176.60.023.3
Michigan St11-169.70.029.9
Auburn11-158.736.25.1
Nebraska11-153.60.043.2
Oklahoma St11-152.70.038.9
Utah11-148.50.041.2
Stanford11-146.70.041.2