Sunday, November 7, 2010

2010 Week 10 College Football Ratings and Rankings; Oregon #1, TCU #2, Stanford #3; Auburn up to #6

In what I termed Separation Saturday, the top-4 teams separated themselves from the rest, helped by 1-loss teams Alabama and Oklahoma losing.  Oregon, TCU, Stanford, and Boise State all moved up a bit and now over a 3 point gap back to a clump of teams behind them.

Behind Oregon, TCU and Stanford made strong moves in the ratings but are still well back of Oregon, TCUs gap just over 4 points and Stanford another 4 points back.  Boise State is right behind Stanford.  Auburn does move up 4 spots but that was more due to Iowa, Utah, Arizona, and Missouri all dropping. They will have a chance to move up when they play Alabama, but Alabama's loss hurts them a bit and all the close games they had that I highlighted last week may not allow them to reach the very top.

I've updated the performance charts to show additional detail, and Boise State's is interesting and supports the belief that their schedule strength has been hurt by their conference.

The light-blue line indicates the schedule strength by week, and you can see how it was very high early in the year but had been steadily declining.  They do get Nevada in 3 weeks to try to remedy that and make one last push to get back into the top-2.

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The computer continued it prowess in picking games going 33-21 in all games but only 4-4 in locks but that is 4 consecutive winning weeks overall.  After some of the strangeness early in the year, the computer seems dialed in.  See the prediction performance for more details.

Here is the top-30.  See the web-site for the full list.

1Oregon93.6329-066.887+0, +0.300
2TCU89.62710-064.172+0, +3.236
3Stanford85.5918-170.848+1, +2.414
4Boise St84.8358-063.858-1, +0.526
5Nebraska81.4968-167.310+0, -1.668
6Auburn80.85910-066.619+4, +0.386
7Iowa80.7867-265.366-1, -1.995
8Alabama80.2967-269.178+4, -0.059
9Oklahoma St79.8798-166.550+9, +2.538
10Ohio State79.8058-162.643+3, -0.205
11Arizona78.9997-269.185-2, -2.273
12Arkansas78.9667-267.583+13, +3.142
13Utah78.7548-163.845-6, -3.016
14Southern Cal78.0346-372.079+1, -0.913
15Oregon St77.9744-477.029-1, -1.174
16Missouri77.9587-268.375-8, -3.695
17LSU77.9498-168.842+3, +0.900
18Wisconsin77.9428-163.237-2, -0.540
19Nevada77.2618-161.019+3, +0.741
20Oklahoma76.6157-269.209-9, -3.803
21Texas A&M76.3996-367.357+12, +2.972
22Michigan St76.3339-163.769-3, -0.823
23Arizona St76.1044-571.932+3, +0.283
24Virginia Tech75.4097-263.533-1, -0.765
25South Carolina75.1966-368.223-8, -2.570
26California75.1825-471.125-2, -0.939
27Florida74.9956-368.131+2, +0.698
28Miami FL74.4746-367.117-1, -0.752
29Florida St74.3126-365.928-8, -2.735
30Mississippi St74.2177-264.325+0, +0.004